MonteDeco GOLD

Decomposed Monte Carlo EA Aiming for Continuous Profits through Trend Following and Single Positions
No excessive optimization using AI or numerous filters has been applied.

Basic Information

• Currency Pair: GOLD (XAU/USD)
• Trading Style: Day Trading
• Maximum Number of Positions: 1
  ( If the entry lot exceeds the maximum lot per position set by the broker, the entry lot will be split into multiple positions.)
• Maximum Lot Size: As per broker's regulations
• Timeframe Used: M5
• Stop Loss: 80 or 100 pips
• Take Profit: 80 or 100 pips
• Hedging: None
• Listing Type: MT5
• Use of Other Files: None
• Special Notes: Single position, adopting Decomposed Monte Carlo method

Trade Logic
Entries are made when a trend is formed on both higher timeframes and the 1-minute Moving Averages. Being a trend-following strategy, it performs well in trending markets. Trades are executed with a risk-reward ratio of 1:1, and the win rate is slightly above 50%.

Money Management
MonteDeco GOLD adopts the Decomposed Monte Carlo method. A notable drawback of traditional Monte Carlo EAs is:

"Without infinite capital, there is a risk of significant drawdowns and potential ruin in the event of numerous consecutive losses."

MonteDeco GOLD mitigates this risk through the following two points:

1. Adopting the Decomposed Monte Carlo method, which results in a more gradual increase in lot size compared to the traditional Monte Carlo method.
2. Configurable Maximum Martingale Rounds, allowing forced resets of the sequence and stop-losses when exceeded.

Additionally, users can choose between simple interest (single interest) and compound interest operations. In the case of compound interest, by keeping the risk rate low, users can experience the effectiveness of this EA over the long term.

Overview of the Decomposed Monte Carlo Method

The Decomposed Monte Carlo method is a betting strategy that improves upon the disadvantages of the traditional Monte Carlo method. It uses the initial sequence [0, 1], and the sum of the numbers at both ends of the sequence becomes the bet amount. If you lose, the bet amount is added to the sequence; if you win, the numbers at both ends are removed. If only one number remains in the sequence, it is evenly decomposed and continued. A key feature is that it prevents the rapid increase of lot size during consecutive losses, allowing for gradual recovery of losses.

Parameters

Parameters can be used with their default values.

• It is recommended to adjust the initial lot, initial risk ratio, and maximum Monte Carlo sequence according to the margin situation and risk tolerance.
• When using the compound interest feature, ensure that the entry lot is correctly calculated by the broker being used by verifying through backtesting.

Item	Description	Default Value
Magic_Number	Magic number. Enter a value that does not duplicate other EAs.	123321
LotOrLisk_Fix	Parameter to determine whether to use simple interest or compound interest mode. Enter 0 for simple interest, and 1 for compound interest.	1
Initial_Lot	Initial lot size. Required for simple interest mode. During operation, the lot size automatically increases or decreases based on the number of consecutive losses and Martingale multiplier. In compound interest mode, this value is not referenced, so any suitable value is acceptable.	0.01
Risk_Ratio	Initial risk ratio. Required for compound interest mode. Determines the percentage of margin to be used for stop loss. The lot size is automatically calculated based on this risk ratio. During operation, the lot size automatically increases or decreases based on the number of consecutive losses and Martingale multiplier. The unit is not in %, for example, 0.3% is entered as 0.003. In simple interest mode, this value is not referenced, so any suitable value is acceptable.	0.001
MonteCarlo_SSS	MonteCarlo_StopSequenceSize. Maximum size of the Monte Carlo sequence. If this value is exceeded, the Monte Carlo sequence is reset.	11

Determination of Entry Lot

• Simple Interest Mode: The initial lot is set to Initial_Lot. Subsequently, the lot size increases or decreases according to the Decomposed Monte Carlo method.

• Compound Interest Mode: The initial lot is set such that the stop loss amount equals the excess margin multiplied by Risk_Ratio. Subsequently, the lot size increases or decreases according to the Decomposed Monte Carlo method.

Example Simple Interest Mode (LotOrLisk_Fix = 0), Initial_Lot = 0.02, MonteCarlo_SSS = 5

Trade Example Table

Trade Number	Monte Carlo Sequence	Entry Lot	Outcome	Next Monte Carlo Sequence	Next Entry Lot
1	[0,1]	0.02	TP (Take Profit)	[0,1]	0.02
2	[0,1]	0.02	SL (Stop Loss)	[0,1,1]	0.02
3	[0,1,1]	0.02	TP	[0,1]	0.02
4	[0,1]	0.02	SL	[0,1,1]	0.02
5	[0,1,1]	0.02	SL	[0,1,1,1]	0.02
6	[0,1,1,1]	0.02	TP	[1,1]	0.04
7	[1,1]	0.04	SL	[1,1,2]	0.06
8	[1,1,2]	0.06	SL	[1,1,2,3]	0.08
9	[1,1,2,3]	0.08	TP	[1,1,2,3,4]	0.10
10	[1,1,2,3,4]	0.10	SL	[1,1,2,3,4,5] → [0,1]	0.02	(Reset, since the next Monte Carlo sequence exceeds MonteCarlo_SSS)
11	[0,1]	0.02	TP	[0,1]	0.02

Backtest

The results over the past three years have been particularly favorable. In the backtest, 1,000 USD has grown to approximately 10,000 USD (10 times)!!!

Disclaimer
FX trading involves high risks and the possibility of losing the principal. In cases of sudden market fluctuations where the stop loss does not function, losses exceeding the set parameters may occur. Results from EA backtesting and forward testing do not guarantee future profits. EA trading performance may vary depending on the broker used and the VPS environment. While bugs and malfunctions are thoroughly tested, we cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred due to unexpected malfunctions. Invest based on your own judgment and responsibility. Please use this EA with the above understanding.

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